Strategic Decision Analysis Tool

Make better decisions by comparing options using three powerful but simple methods: Expected Value, Risk Assessment, and Sensitivity Analysis.

📖 Who Is This Tool For & How It Works

How This Works

This tool helps you make better decisions by analyzing your options in three ways:

📊

Expected Value

Calculates which option is likely to give the best results on average by weighing impact, probability, and importance of each outcome.

⚖️

Risk Assessment

Shows which options are "safe bets" vs "high-risk, high-reward" by measuring the uncertainty and variance in potential outcomes.

🔍

Sensitivity Analysis

Tests which of your assumptions matter most to the final decision by showing how changes in estimates affect the results.

💡 e.g. Choosing between a social media campaign (predictable, lower impact) vs. a legal challenge (uncertain, but could create major change)
Setup Your Decision

🚀 Quick Start Guide

  1. Add at least two options you're considering (e.g., "Launch new product" or "Expand to new market")
  2. For each option, add possible outcomes with their impact, probability, and importance
  3. Click "Analyze My Options" to see which choice is best
  4. Review the results in the other tabs for deeper insights

Tip: The more detailed your options and outcomes, the better your analysis will be!

Expected Value Analysis
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value calculates the "average" outcome you can expect from each option, considering both the impact and likelihood of different results.

Formula: Impact × Probability × Importance, added up for all possible outcomes

Add your options in the "Setup Options" tab first, then return here to see the results.

Risk Assessment
What is Risk Assessment?
Risk assessment measures how much uncertainty each option has. Some strategies are predictable (low risk), others could succeed greatly or fail completely (high risk).

Why it matters: If you have limited resources, you might prefer a "safe bet" over a gamble, even if the gamble has higher expected value.

Add your options in the "Setup Options" tab first, then return here to see the risk analysis.

Sensitivity Analysis
What is Sensitivity Analysis?
Sensitivity analysis tests "what if your estimates are wrong?" It shows which assumptions are most critical to your decision.

Why it matters: If a small change in one assumption completely flips your decision, you should research that factor more carefully before proceeding.

Add your options in the "Setup Options" tab first, then return here to see which assumptions matter most.